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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 1:17 pm 
Yes, just wanted to give a small taste. Who knows how long it will be before I get my thread ready for a public viewing? I tend to be slow and painful on the graphing, not really my thing.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 29, 2010 2:47 am 
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The 5870 is quickly losing value on ebay, much faster than I expected. It's similar to what happened to the 8800GTX after 8800GT was released. NV thought that releasing 8800GT at $300 would let 8800GTX stay at $500, but nope.. the GTX quickly dropped to $330 in about 2 months, with the GT dropping to about $220. The 3870, although released at well over $200, still went down to $180. Of course, both AMD and NV don't want to let this happen again, but competition is inevitable especially with the upcoming Cayman cards. Once the 5870 is phased out, it cannot be above the 6870's retail price on Ebay and trade forums, which is going to be somewhere below $200 in no time. Exactly one year ago, I remember hunting around for GTX 285 to replace my 8800GTX, but with it phased out, and with the delay of Fermi cards, it was going for higher than retail at $275-300 (during the summer it was retailing for as low as $230). The 285 carried a $100 price premium over the 275/280 due to it being the top offering, but quickly became obsolete with new DX11 cards from NV. Used 285's actually sold for more than the faster 5850 that supported DX11. Now, the 285, in Fermi's shadow, sells for half as much, hardly any more than an 8800 Ultra on ebay today. Yeah, it's obsolete to me too, due to the lack of DX11.

The 6950 is going to be a tricky card that determines the pricing structure for the rest of mid-range and high-end cards out there. If it could be found for $250 on Newegg, the 6870 will be pushed all the way down to $180, from $240--after NV lets the 460 1GB drop a bit to $160-ish so that it stands out in the shadow of new GTX 560 cards. But I'm sure that the 6950 will stay ahead of the new 560 by quite a healthy margin, so it'd be no lower than $299. Will the 6950 come ahead of GTX 480/570? Will the competition drive prices down like the 3870 vs 8800GT/GTX round?

I'm guessing that the 6950 will lose out to the 570 by a small margin, but keep in mind that the 570 might be a couple percentage points faster than the 480 due to improved FP16 filtering throughput and more robust Z-culling optimization. So, will the 6950 still be faster than the then-discontinued 480?

Already, GTX 480'es are selling for an average of scantily $290-300 on ebay (a MASSIVE drop from $380 right before the 580 came out). This is very bad news for both AMD and NV. If the 480 drops down further to $240, AMD will have a hard time selling the 6950 for any more than $260 unless it's noticeably faster without any driver cheats that have already been brought to the public's attention, courtesy of NV and hardcore review sites (harder than [H], heh..). IMHO, the 570 is already doomed to a sub-$300 average selling price. Once again, just how fast will AMD make the castrated 6950?

Does AMD have anything to directly encounter the GTX 560 that is sure to beat Barts XT 6870, rather than let it rake in all the $200-250 sweet spot sales? The 6950 would have to be at least 15% faster to make it worth the $40-50 premium in the $260-280 range. A surprise Barts "XTX" 6890, with 1280 shaders and 64 TMU's, perhaps??? NV is probably trying very hard to find out for sure if AMD is gonna do this or not. For a clearer picture, my guesses (for Feb-March 2011) would be this:


    ___Tier A Super High-End --(Plays Crysis 2!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
  1. $699 Radeon HD 6990 4GB (DX11) 250 Voodoopower -NEW
  2. $629 Radeon HD 6990 2GB (DX11) 240 Voodoopower -NEW


    Tier B Upper High-End --(Plays like a beast)
  3. $500* Radeon Ares HD 5870X2 4GB (DX11) 192 Voodoopower
  4. $439 Radeon HD 6970 2GB (DX11) 183 Voodoopower -NEW
  5. $489 Geforce GTX 580 3GB (DX11) 182 Voodoopower -NEW
  6. $439 Geforce GTX 580 1536MB (DX11) 180 Voodoopower
  7. $400* Radeon HD 5970 4GB (DX11) 174 Voodoopower
  8. $360* Radeon HD 5970 2GB (DX11) 169 Voodoopower


    Tier C Mid High-End --(Plays most games at maxed-out settings @ 2560x1600 w/ 4x AA)
  9. $289 Radeon HD 6950 2GB (DX11) 158 Voodoopower -NEW
  10. $299 Geforce GTX 570 1536MB (DX11) 157 Voodoopower -NEW
  11. $249 Radeon HD 6950 1GB (DX11) 154 Voodoopower -NEW
  12. $240* Geforce GTX 480 1536MB (DX11) 154 Voodoopower


    Tier D Lower High-End --(Plays most games at maxed-out settings @ 2560x1600)
  13. $200* Radeon HD 5870 2GB (DX11) 135 Voodoopower
  14. $180* Radeon HD 5870 1GB (DX11) 132 Voodoopower
  15. $239 Geforce GTX 560 2GB (DX11) 129 Voodoopower - NEW
  16. $190* Geforce GTX 295 1792MB (DX10) 129 Voodoopower
  17. $219 Geforce GTX 560 1GB (DX11) 126 Voodoopower - NEW
  18. $160* Geforce GTX 470 1280MB (DX11) 122 Voodoopower
  19. $199 Radeon HD 6870 1GB (DX11) 121 Voodoopower


    Tier E Upper Mid-Range --(Plays most games at nearly maxed-out settings @ 2560x1600)
  20. $140* Radeon HD 4870X2 2GB (DX10.1) 116 Voodoopower
  21. $140* Radeon HD 5850 1GB (DX11) 112 Voodoopower
  22. $149 Radeon HD 6850 1GB (DX11) 108 Voodoopower
  23. $159 Geforce GTX 460 2GB (DX11) 107 Voodoopower

* means discontinued, so the prices are for average re-sales

See how the majority of older cards dropped down a notch, to a lower class? Groovy, eh? ;)

Let's see how accurate (or inaccurate) my predictions would be!!! :think: <:-P (beer2)

_________________
Which one do your intentions belong to: Heaven, or Hell?
If you DIE tonight, do you partake in good days, good days, good days, good days, good days, good life in Heaven, forever and ever?

To be forgiven by Jesus, He rose us from the sinful dead with bonding love.

______

Dear GOD, My GOD, I Will Live With YOU In YOUR BONDING LOVE and YOUR Heavenly Faith And Love Forever And Forever, Amen.


Last edited by BoFox on Mon Nov 29, 2010 3:38 am, edited 6 times in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 29, 2010 2:58 am 
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What are used 5870s going for now? - now that you can get a new one for $215 after MiR at NewEgg

i do not believe that used cards affect new pricing whatsoever. Once the supply dries up, you have only the new cards and then the old cards tend to cost a bit more for a little longer - just like GTX 285 did.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 29, 2010 3:26 am 
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apoppin wrote:
What are used 5870s going for now? - now that you can get a new one for $215 after MiR at NewEgg

i do not believe that used cards affect new pricing whatsoever. Once the supply dries up, you have only the new cards and then the old cards tend to cost a bit more for a little longer - just like GTX 285 did.


Wow, used 5870's went up quite a bit for the past couple weeks, from $210-ish, since I last looked, now to $~230. Must be due to the Xmas shopping season. After that, I'd expect prices to free-fall a bit. I don't see one for $215 after MIR on Newegg--the cheapest one is $309. Indeed, prices shot up all around for many models, including GTX 460 and Barts too.

"Whatsoever"? Well, if there's a gigantic supply of used cards on the market, it certainly would affect the new sales. With everybody dumping their 480's for 580's, super cheap used 480's are going to keep the new 570's in check--especially if Ebay and the trade forums are flooded with them, overriding buyers' decision to buy new cards instead of excellent used DX11 cards. Also, after the inventory is cleared out by a certain amount during the phasing-out period (by just enough to leave a few thousand cards still left in the retail channels), the retail prices will become ridiculously expensive again, just like with any of the ancient "brand new" cards that you could find on Newegg. Maybe it's deliberately done (as per NV/AMD's recommendation) to artificially keep the prices up for the new generation of cards, by keeping the old gen expensive?

_________________
Which one do your intentions belong to: Heaven, or Hell?
If you DIE tonight, do you partake in good days, good days, good days, good days, good days, good life in Heaven, forever and ever?

To be forgiven by Jesus, He rose us from the sinful dead with bonding love.

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Dear GOD, My GOD, I Will Live With YOU In YOUR BONDING LOVE and YOUR Heavenly Faith And Love Forever And Forever, Amen.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 29, 2010 3:39 am 
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Again, not really.

If there is a giant glut of GTX 480s, then the guys *selling* their cards are going to need new ones
:think:


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 29, 2010 5:03 am 
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Pardon me, but most of the guys *selling* their cards *already* bought GTX 580's. Remember the 285's being so expensive last year, more than what 295's are re-selling for now.. well, they had nothing to upgrade to, as many do not switch camps from NV to AMD so easily. Oh come on, the used card prices have to affect new cards somehow, even if by only 10%. Blast me wrong all you want.. ha!

_________________
Which one do your intentions belong to: Heaven, or Hell?
If you DIE tonight, do you partake in good days, good days, good days, good days, good days, good life in Heaven, forever and ever?

To be forgiven by Jesus, He rose us from the sinful dead with bonding love.

______

Dear GOD, My GOD, I Will Live With YOU In YOUR BONDING LOVE and YOUR Heavenly Faith And Love Forever And Forever, Amen.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 29, 2010 5:08 am 
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OK, i'll accept a temporary ten percent
:D


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 1:18 am 
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apoppin wrote:
OK, i'll accept a temporary ten percent
:D

What, you can't accept 11%? (mad1) :P

About the 570, I guess it won't be any faster than GTX 480. So, one of my predictions failed already, if the leak about 320-bit bus is gonna be true for the 570.. :-q

Dang, forgot to include GTX 595 in my predictions! I'll go ahead and guess that it'll be a few percentage points faster than 6990, somewhat due to better SLI scaling than CF, and NV's determination on winning the 40nm round for once and for all, like with the late GTX 295 vs 4870X2 that was around for much longer.

_________________
Which one do your intentions belong to: Heaven, or Hell?
If you DIE tonight, do you partake in good days, good days, good days, good days, good days, good life in Heaven, forever and ever?

To be forgiven by Jesus, He rose us from the sinful dead with bonding love.

______

Dear GOD, My GOD, I Will Live With YOU In YOUR BONDING LOVE and YOUR Heavenly Faith And Love Forever And Forever, Amen.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 8:21 pm 
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now i can't comment :P

But i hope you don't mind if we sticky this thread in Video. A lot of work went into it.
:good:


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 02, 2010 12:16 pm 
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My, thank you! :blush: I do mind it being stickied (minding it in a nice, grateful way)! (F)

"Now I can't comment", meaning you're bound to NDA terms, or you just don't want to? (cooking)

BTW, I think that if NV could finally release a full GF106 (GTS 450) with 192-bit memory and 24 ROP's (like the slower-clocked GTX 460M for notebooks) while maintaining the same 783MHz clock, it just might trade blows with a 5770. Clock it at least 800MHz, and it's very likely to come out ahead. Why is Nvidia waiting so long to do this? Perhaps NV wants to keep 1.5GB for high-end Fermi cards only for now, and afraid that 768MB would scare buyers away from choosing it over a 5750 1GB for example. Or maybe NV is afraid that it would come too close to a GTX 460 768MB (with same 24ROP's, but lower pixel output due to much lower clocks, plus it's already priced low enough, so NV has nowhere to position the full GF106 without pricing the well-selling 128-bit version down the toilet), especially if it does indeed have 48 TMU's instead of 32. Maybe NV just wants to wait and see what AMD has to do with the 5770. It's driving me nuts. Is NV just collecting all of the good chips and using it for 460M low-powered notebooks, or saving it to counter AMD's 5770 replacement, with adjusted clocks and voltages?

See a review on GTX 460M that just came out yesterday: http://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/gef ... 799-2.html
It says that it has the same 32 TMU's, not 48 as I speculated... oh well. ( EDIT-- I keep on forgetting that, the TMU's are usually linear with the shaders, not the ROP's/memory bus. )

Still, this is what GTS 250 should have been, instead of just a renamed 9800GTX+ with 1GB of memory. It would have served NV very, very well during their long depression between the discontinued 285/275 and delayed Fermi. The exact specs including DX11 support were certainly do-able on 55nm, just requiring high power consumption shy of 4890/275 territory. That way, the 5770 would've had less appeal, plus the 5830 would've had no chance but to carry 32ROP's and a true 256-bit bus. IMHO, the GF104 architecture is probably what the canned G90 project (replaced by G92 and GT200) would have looked a lot like (with 384-bit GDDR3 and DX10 instead). Oh, I can feel Nvidia's intermittent "phantom limb syndrome" from having cut off the 9900 Ultra along with its dream G90 project that was under development for 2-3+ years, heh! 8-}

EDIT:

GTS 550 (full GF106) speculated specs compared to GTS 450 and G80:
~5% higher clocks than GTS 450 (around 825 MHz) -- fast 192sp's having 10-15% more shader operations/sec than GTX 260-216, at least 20% more texturing power than 8800 Ultra
50-60% more bandwidth than GTS 450 due to 192-bit bus with ~5% faster GDDR5 (~5% more bandwidth than 8800GTX's 384-bit GDDR3)
50% more ROP's (same 24 ROP's as 8800GTX, but at least 40% higher clock and pixel output capacity)

Now, only if it could have at least 48-64 TMU's... then it would've been much, much closer to what the souped-up G90 would've looked like on 55nm (although it would hardly have any more bandwidth than 8800 Ultra, and come in either 768MB or 1.5GB flavors).


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 9:18 pm 
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Update: Added GTX 570.. I had a hard time deciding if the 570 should be placed above the 480. While the larger 1.5GB buffer (along with 48 vs 40 ROP's and 16.7% more bandwidth) makes the 480 seem more future-proof than the 1.25GB buffer of the 570, the doubling of FP16 texturing capacity ultimately makes the 570 more futureproof than the 480 in the long run. 3DMark Vantage and its heavy usage of FP16 textures show this, and we can already see the gains in DiRT2, a DX11 game that makes light use of FP16 textures.

AlienBabelTech's review seems to be perfectly in line with the average of the rest of other reviews out there.

http://techreport.com/articles.x/20088
http://www.anandtech.com/show/4051/nvidias-geforce-gtx-570-filling-in-the-gaps
http://www.bit-tech.net/hardware/2010/12/07/nvidia-geforce-gtx-570-1-3gb-review/1
http://www.hardwareheaven.com/reviews.php?reviewid=1080
http://www.hardwarecanucks.com/forum/hardware-canucks-reviews/38626-nvidia-geforce-gtx-570-review.html
http://www.hexus.net/content/item.php?item=27782
http://www.pcper.com/article.php?aid=1046
http://www.hardocp.com/article/2010/12/07/nvidia_geforce_gtx_570_video_card_review
http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/ASUS/GeForce_GTX_570/
http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/Palit/GeForce_GTX_570_Sonic_Platinum/
http://www.legitreviews.com/article/1482/1/
http://www.guru3d.com/article/geforce-gtx-570-review/
http://www.tomshardware.co.uk/geforce-gtx-570-gf110-performance,review-32062.html
http://lab501.ro/placi-video/nvidia-geforce-gtx-570-review
http://www.hardware.fr/articles/811-1/dossier-nvidia-geforce-gtx-570.html
http://www.firingsquad.com/hardware/nvidia_geforce_gtx_570_review/
http://hothardware.com/Reviews/NVIDIA-GeForce-GTX-570-DirectX-11-Graphics-Card-Review/
http://www.neoseeker.com/Articles/Hardware/Reviews/NVIDIA_GeForce_GTX_570/
http://benchmarkreviews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=426&Itemid=72
http://www.overclockersclub.com/reviews/nvidia_geforce_gtx_570_review/
http://www.rage3d.com/reviews/video/evga_gtx_570_sc
http://www.bjorn3d.com/read.php?cID=1962
http://www.techspot.com/review/346-gigabyte-geforce-gtx-570/
http://www.computerbase.de/artikel/grafikkarten/2010/test-nvidia-geforce-gtx-570/
http://www.hkepc.com/5868/page/4#view
http://www.maximumpc.com/article/features/lab_testing_nvidia%E2%80%99s_holiday_gift_gtx_570
http://tbreak.com/tech/2010/12/zotac-gtx-570-review/
http://www.techradar.com/reviews/pc-mac/pc-components/graphics-cards/nvidia-geforce-gtx-570-913440/review?artc_pg=1
http://www.hitechlegion.com/reviews/video-cards/7274-evga-geforce-gtx-570-superclocked-review
http://www.hitechlegion.com/reviews/video-cards/7276-nvidia-geforce-gtx-570-directx-11-video-card-review
http://www.tweaktown.com/reviews/3714/gainward_geforce_gtx_570_1280mb_goes_like_hell_video_card/index.html
http://ve3d.ign.com/articles/reviews/58228/NVIDIA-GTX-570-Launch-News-Review-and-Benchmarks
http://alienbabeltech.com/main/?p=22392
http://ht4u.net/reviews/2010/nvidia_geforce_gtx_570_gf110_test/
http://www.techarp.com/showarticle.aspx?artno=706&pgno=0
http://vr-zone.com/articles/nvidia-geforce-gtx-570-review-gainward-s-custom-gtx-570-goes-like-hell-edition/10433.html?doc=10433
http://www.nvnews.net/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=157771
http://www.legionhardware.com/articles_pages/gigabyte_geforce_gtx_570,1.html
GTX 570 SLI Review
http://www.guru3d.com/article/geforce-gtx-570-sli-review/

The 570 does come out within 1% faster than the 480, more like 0.5% overall, I would estimate for now. Techpowerup's conclusion show the overclocked 570 at only 1% advantage over the stock 480, but AlienBabelTech's review is the most well-rounded review out there with more reasonable and practical settings and resolutions that the card allows (the settings that the enthusiast gamer would choose anyways). Also, ABT's review has by far the most games covered in benchmarks of all the review sites out there (23 discrete games to be exact, plus Vantage and Unigine). For the list and numbers, see:
ABT's conclusion chart of GTX 570 performance
http://alienbabeltech.com/main/?p=22392&page=28


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 9:39 pm 
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Definitely place the GTX 570 above the GTX 480
:good:


And i think we may have found our new PR guy
(thy)


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 11, 2010 2:25 am 
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Very nice.

You grouped the cards pretty well. I don't see anything wrong with your rankings, actually.


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 12, 2010 7:16 pm 
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Thanks, man.. all thanks to your idea about the groupings! (beer2)

_________________
Which one do your intentions belong to: Heaven, or Hell?
If you DIE tonight, do you partake in good days, good days, good days, good days, good days, good life in Heaven, forever and ever?

To be forgiven by Jesus, He rose us from the sinful dead with bonding love.

______

Dear GOD, My GOD, I Will Live With YOU In YOUR BONDING LOVE and YOUR Heavenly Faith And Love Forever And Forever, Amen.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 4:12 am 
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GT430 seems to beat HD 5550 GDDR5 according to http://www.xbitlabs.com/articles/video/ ... html#sect3 which is contrary to other reviews, IIRC... cant remember which ones exactly, but gotta check on that. Approx. 10% faster according to Xbitlabs, to be exact..

_________________
Which one do your intentions belong to: Heaven, or Hell?
If you DIE tonight, do you partake in good days, good days, good days, good days, good days, good life in Heaven, forever and ever?

To be forgiven by Jesus, He rose us from the sinful dead with bonding love.

______

Dear GOD, My GOD, I Will Live With YOU In YOUR BONDING LOVE and YOUR Heavenly Faith And Love Forever And Forever, Amen.


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