i get emails from Peddie research .. the latest today:
"We found that AIB shipments during Q2 2012 did behave according to past years with regard to seasonality, but in unit shipments was lower on a year-to-year comparison and on a quarter-to-quarter comparison for the quarter. Overall, for the AIB, and PC market in general, 2012 has been, and is forecasted to have a decline in shipments due to the popularity of notebooks and worldwide economic depression.The quarter in general
Total AIB shipments decreased this quarter, from the previous quarter, by 6.5% to 14.8 million units. (see Table 1)
AMD increased its market share to 40.3%, Nvidia's market share slipped but still retains a large majority at 59.3%. (see Table 1)
Year-to-year this quarter AIB shipments were down 7%.
Normally, this quarter of the year is down, and this year's quarter was no different, but the decline is less than the 10-year average. However, this is just one quarter in a very turbulent year so we can't use this quarter a prediction of the future, the world-wide economic conditions are just too uncertain.
The change from quarter to quarter is more than last year. Quarter-to-quarter percentage changes are shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Growth rates quarter-to-quarter over time (Jon Peddie Research)
The ten-year average change for AIBs in the 2nd quarter is -11.3%; this year it was lower at 6.5%.
AMD introduced the new Radeon HD 7000 series early in the quarter and as a result picked up market share. There have not been any new games or applications to really take advantage of these new products and so sales have been due more to replacements than driven by demand from applications-we don't see this changing in the near future and are very disappointed with the game developers. Those developers are too busy trying to figure out free to play and massive multi-player on-line games, and whether to develop for a console or a PC first. So while they dither, the market stagnates.
Nvidia got off to a slow start in Q2 and cited supply constraint as the main reasons for the decline. However, they managed to ship more parts than AMD. AMD did not complain about supply constraints.
Embedded graphics processors at first were simply replacing integrated chipsets, and not having a major impact on AIBs. However, the new embedded graphics processor from AMD, the A10 (Trinity) has shown very good performance and has had an affect on entry-level AIBs.
The market has decreased year over year. Shipments decreased to 14.8 million units, down 1.1 million units from this quarter last year.
The market for AIBs was down this quarter partially due to seasonality and largely due to economic distress."