The NAND Shortage Is Real, But So Is Hope

[SteelCrysis]

http://press.trendforce.com/press/20170313-2776.html
More bad news:

DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, reports that client-grade SSDs of mainstream capacities continue to see rising contract prices in the PC-OEM market during this first quarter. On average, contract prices of MLC-based client-grade SSDs are projected to go up by 12~16% compared with the fourth quarter of last year, while prices of TLC-based products are expected to increase by 10~16% sequentially. Looking ahead to the second quarter, end device sales are anticipated to be relatively flat. Furthermore, PC-OEMs are reaching their limits on SSD costs. While the average prices of mainstream client-grade SSDs will keep climbing, the increase in the second quarter will likely be more moderate.
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Looking at the 3D-NAND SSD segment, Samsung is still the leader as the company have shipped products based on its V3 (48-layer) solution since the fourth quarter of 2016. Micron and Intel, which are working together on 3D-NAND products, also started to ship their 3D-NAND SSDs in the fourth quarter of last year, albeit in smaller volumes. Other competitors are going to reveal their respective 3D-NAND SSDs in the first half of 2017 and begin shipments in the second half of the year.

DRAMeXchange anticipates that the global shipment share of client-grade SSDs using TLC Flash will exceed 75% by in 2017. Moreover, 3D-NAND TLC is expected to become the mainstream Flash solution for TLC-based SSDs shipped this year. As for the 2D-NAND MLC and the 3D-NAND MLC designs, they are not cost competitive and their chips are short in supply. Therefore, 2D- or 3D-NAND MLC will be used mainly for high-end SSD lines.