09-07-2017, 10:41 PM
https://www.extremetech.com/computing/25...ad-ryzen-2
Quote:Add the huge contraction in PC sales the last six years and AMD’s survival has been far from assured, at multiple points. Ryzen, therefore, wasn’t a worst-case scenario for AMD simply because of its node or architecture. The entire process (pun intended) of bringing Ryzen to market was a worst-case scenario for AMD, nearly without exception. It’s genuinely surprising that Ryzen is as strong as it is, given the headwinds AMD faced in bringing the chip to market.
Our cloudy crystal ball suggests 2018 will see the usual set of frequency tweaks and SKU adjustments that are typical of a product on a maturing 14nm process, and we’d expect to see a modest frequency boost within the same TDP and more efficient CPUs hitting lower TDPs further down the stack. AMD has previously implied it would do a 14nm+ spin on Ryzen, even though that terminology is typically used by Intel.
It’s possible that AMD will pull in some architectural changes as well, though we think most of those will likely be reserved for Zen 2, which will arrive on 7nm. GlobalFoundries has said it wants to have 7nm in volume production by the end of 2018, which points to a 2019 launch window for Zen 2. (AMD’s graph above shows a “Zen 3” in 2020, but this doesn’t square with a Zen 2 that debuts in 2019, and GF has publicly said it won’t start High Volume Manufacturing on 7nm until 2H 2018 at the earliest.)
Intel is expected to counter Zen with improved core counts and single-thread performance as part of its upcoming Coffee Lake family of CPUs. But AMD has enough leeway in its current market position to retrench itself without gutting its prices the way it did during the long, sad slide of the Piledriver years. It’s going to be an interesting 12-18 months, even if Zen 2 hits towards the end of that timeframe.