10-05-2018, 11:24 PM
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd-in...37864.html
Quote:We won't have desktop market share numbers for Q3 for another month, but we spoke with Mercury Research's Dean McCarron about AMD's chances of attaining 30 percent of the market by the end of Q4. McCarron cautioned that he doesn't forecast future market share, but he did provide some interesting perspective:
Quote:"[...] for a 30 percent AMD desktop share to happen in Q4, AMD's volumes would need to either be 250 percent higher in the quarter than they were last year, or Intel's shipments would need to decline 65 percent, or some combination of the two. Since 2000, the largest on-year decline Intel has experienced for any quarter was -24 percent, and the largest on-year increase AMD has experienced was +57 percent.McCarron's statements are telling. In order to reach just 20 percent market share, either AMD would have to more than double its year-on-year volume, or Intel shipments would have to decline 65 percent in a very short amount of time.
If somehow moves at these historic extremes simultaneously happened in Q4, AMD's share would fall in the low 20 percent range, well short of 30 percent. Should a 30 percent AMD share materialize next quarter, it would be an unprecedented statistical outlier within the history of the processor market and carry with it far-reaching consequences."
But the market is fluid. According to Intel, its shortage of 14nm processors comes courtesy of record demand, but the general consensus is that the 10nm delay has wreaked havoc on Intel's production scheduling. In either case, Intel is selling every piece of silicon it spins in its fabs. That makes it unlikely that the company would lose such a large amount of share in a short amount of time, even after accounting for the first growth we've seen in the desktop PC market since 2011.
It's natural to expect AMD to pick up some sales from Intel's production missteps, though, particularly as the companies face off during the yearly holiday battle. However, a report from industry soothsayer IDC last week says that AMD hasn't materially gained from Intel's production challenges, at least not yet:
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OEMs can source high-end Core models, but we've tracked a steady increase in pricing over the last several weeks in the retail market and scarce availability of Intel's premium K-series models, particularly in foreign markets. That makes it likely that AMD will make at least some progress against Intel in the DIY market during the 14nm shortage.
It's natural to expect AMD's growth rate to accelerate if it can roll out 7nm CPUs for the desktop before Intel can release 10nm products. AMD has also brought a new lineup of low-cost Athlon processors with integrated graphics to market, which is a key to securing more OEM orders in the high-volume budget PC market.
For now, industry watchers haven't seen a massive uptick in AMD's market share in relation to Intel's shortages, and we've yet to see AMD's pricing increase, but that could change quickly as we move into the holiday season. AMD had a bang-up holiday season last year, and we expect it will have similar, if not better, success this year as Intel suffers from high pricing and scarce availability. We'll have the numbers for AMD's Q3 market share in a month, but we'll have to wait until the beginning of next year to see how the holiday season pans out.