Chip Shortage Thread

[dmcowen674]

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/chip-s...to-persist

The semiconductor industry is notoriously slow when it comes to reacting to sudden increases in demand. Some analysts believe that demand for chips now exceeds supply by about 30%, and it will take three or four quarters for the supply to catch up with the demand. Essentially, this means that chip shortages will persist well into 2022.
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"We believe semi companies are shipping 10% to 30% below current demand levels and it will take at least 3-4 quarters for supply to catch up with demand and then another 1-2 quarters for inventories at customers/distribution channels to be replenished back to normal levels," said Harlan Sur, an analyst with J.P. Morgan, in a note to clients, reports MarketWatch.
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Major foundries, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and GlobalFoundries, have announced expansion plans for this year, and there are indications that packaging companies are going to do the same. However, it will take months for companies like ASML, Applied Materials, KLA, LAM Research, and others to build the fab tools; then, it will take some time to install the equipment. As a result, any capacity-related decision made now will not have an impact until several quarters from now, at best. 

Keeping in mind that demand is already outstripping supply by around 30%, and for many products, the backorder is building up, it will take months after semiconductor companies solve their capacity problems before everyone gets the chips they need. Meanwhile, it is unclear what happens to the 'excess' capacity after the demand is met and inventory levels get back to normal.

Furthermore, it obviously remains to be seen whether fabless makers of chips continue to introduce new SKUs if they cannot meet demand for existing products.

I got my HAM radio license nearly a year ago on March 18th 2020. Because of the chip shortage there are no new radios being produced which of course has raised prices on what is actually out there.