IBM fellow sees the end for Moore’s Law

Moore’s Law, what is that ? Intel’s co-founder Gordon Moore observed in 1965 that the number of transistors that can be placed on a chip doubled every two years. This trend has continued till now. Speaking at International Symposium on Physical Design 2009 conference IBM Fellow Carl Anderson declared that end of Moore’s Law is at hand. Carl Anderson, who oversees physical design and tools in its server division was one of 65 semiconductor gurus speaking at the conference.

He gave the analogy of the exponential growth in the railroad industry in the 1800s , automobile industry in the 1920s and 1940s, aviation until the speed of sound was achieved. He said just like in those industries, the exponential growth (Moore’s Law) in the semiconductor industry eventually comes to an end. he reasoned that only few high-end chip makers today can even afford the cost of next-generation research and design,and the fabs to build them.

He predicted the growth of some interesting technologies which could see exponential growth in the next few years. These include optical interconnects, 3-D chips and accelerator-based processing. He predicted that rack-to-rack optical interconnects will become commonplace, with chip-to-chip optical connections on the same board coming soon. But Anderson said on-chip optical signaling remains years away.

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