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<\/a>Predicting the Future<\/strong> \u2013 We all like\u00a0 to do it, predict which products are going to be hot, which not; which will live for years, which will fade quickly. Lots of people try to tell you what you\u2019re going to like and what you\u2019re not. Sometimes they\u2019re right, sometimes\u2026<\/em><\/p>\nHave you ever wondered why:<\/p>\n
–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fortune tellers post hours? They should know when you\u2019re coming
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 You never hear about a fortune teller winning the lottery or cleaning out Las Vegas
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 More of them aren\u2019t key members of product design teams or on the board of directors of companies
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 More VCs don\u2019t employ them instead of some kid who just got his\/her MBA from a major name school and knows what the consumer will want\/need in 5, 10 years<\/p>\n
It\u2019s all because they don\u2019t really know what\u2019s just around the corner or what new company, product, service, idea is going to be the next great thing anymore than you or me. If they did, more than one out of 10 start-ups would still be around at the end of five years.<\/p>\n
And companies wouldn\u2019t introduce stuff only to see you walk out of the store with another company\u2019s stuff.<\/p>\n
Count Your Losses<\/strong><\/p>\n Go ahead, look around your office or home at all the stuff you were positive was going to make it big and have really great staying power.<\/p>\n Instead, they sputtered, died, became niche products like:<\/p>\n –\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Beta and VHS player\/library And, of course, there are the hundreds of Internet\/web-based companies that have come and gone leaving no residue behind except bruised egos and unfulfilled dreams.<\/p>\n None of them were necessarily bad ideas, bad products. Often it was because the folks who developed and marketed them hung onto them too long and were unwilling or unable to kill the product with a newer, better, faster, cheaper solution.<\/p>\n Shrinking Cycles<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/strong>What\u2019s keeping company folks from getting a good night\u2019s sleep is that the product\/service life cycle is getting shorter and shorter.<\/p>\n The auto industry used to have a design life cycle of 3 years. Today, they\u2019re doing honestly new product introductions \u2013 not just incremental changes — every year.<\/p>\n The CE\/PC industry used to have an annual product refresh cycle. That has shrunk to a six-month, even a three-month cycle.<\/p>\n It\u2019s getting so bad that the day after you start developing the next great thing, others in the organization are developing its replacement.<\/p>\n Both teams are hoping theirs is the product that you just gotta\u2019 have.<\/p>\n That\u2019s right; ultimately, it\u2019s you the consumer (business and individual) who determines which product is fought over when folks wait in line for the store\u2019s doors to open or is stolen when you\u2019re out of the room or walking down the street.<\/p>\n Consumers also vote with their money as to which product\/service gets Rowan and Martin\u2019s infamous Fickle Finger of Fate Award \u2026 and how quickly.<\/p>\n Speeding Adoption<\/strong><\/p>\n Acceptance, adoption, disillusionment is happening faster and faster:<\/p>\n –\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The PC took 21 years to achieve 50 percent market penetration In the case of the last three, there are experts (normal people who like to predict the future) who say each is going to replace\/kill the other.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not just the product category the companies want to dominate; and despite their neat slogans \u2013 \u201cdesigned for humanity,\u201d \u201cdo no evil,\u201d or other neat sound byte, they want to terminate the competition.<\/p>\n Companies, like their products, have their day in the sunshine and their dark days.<\/p>\n Overconfident<\/strong><\/p>\n Sometimes it\u2019s fact, sometimes fiction, sometimes wishful thinking:<\/p>\n –\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Nokia \u201cowned\u201d the cellphone market, dominating everyone\/everything. Then MS rescued them and they\u2019re shedding products, people to recuperate. It\u2019s true that with many of the companies and products, much of the problem can be laid at the feet of management. They become overconfident that whatever they offer, consumers will snap them up.<\/p>\n You didn\u2019t.<\/strong><\/p>\n But as Ben Thompson wrote in a recent blog, even the best futurists, forecasters, management thinkers, \u201cexperts\u201d sometimes get it wrong.<\/p>\n They also try to tell each other why they\u2019re \u201cmore right.\u201d<\/p>\n For example, consider your always-with-you smartphone.<\/p>\n There are two leaders \u2013 Apple, Samsung – and a lot of wannabes.<\/p>\n Experts got their first views of the iPhone 5C\/5S and said they were going to be disasters or modest successes. Consumers didn\u2019t care and bought 9M in the first weekend!<\/p>\n Samsung\u2019s Galaxy 5 flavors got mixed reviews even within the same publications and still folks bought them.<\/p>\n Tablets? Same story.<\/p>\n But both firms have been doing well because they\u2019re focusing on the consumer, not the person writing the review, forecasting the future.<\/p>\n
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 LaserDisc player\/library
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 PalmPilot
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Netbook
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3D glasses \u2013 active and passive
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8-in, 5.25-in, 3.5-in floppies
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Your favorite here_____<\/p>\n<\/a>Laugh-In<\/strong> \u2013 One of the many highlights of the Rowan & Martin Show was the awarding of the Fickle Finger of Fate Award for a stupid or dumb mistake. Today, it\u2019s something far less funny, more painful for companies\/products; it\u2019s stagnant sales.<\/em><\/p>\n
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Cellphone – 16 years
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Color TV – 10 years
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CD player – 12 years
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 DVD – 8 years
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Laptops – 10 years
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Smartphones should be there in 7 years
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Tablets should take 5<\/p>\n<\/a>Product Release<\/strong> \u2013 With almost military precision, companies strive to get optimum consumer attention as well as deliver shock and awe among the competition. With today\u2019s always-on, open organizations it\u2019s increasingly difficult to surprise competitors and consumers.<\/em><\/p>\n
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Motorola had a great run with their phones, stumbled and Google bought em and now \u2026 well, we\u2019ll see.
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Apple set the pace for smartphones and established the tablet market and now no matter how many the consumers buy, it just ain\u2019t feeling the love.
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Lenovo bought IBM\u2019s PC division and suddenly respect returned to the industry pioneer.
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Samsung, the company with its fingers in everything, is designing and marketing flawlessly \u2026 for the time being
\n–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 RIM (Research in Motion) and its Blackberry were kings of the mountain and are now hoping (begging) someone\/anyone to buy the carcass<\/p>\n